It’s gonna be an ugly summer

So long hot girl summer!

I’m writing this newsletter from a local café, where I’m sitting next to four 20-somethings who are discussing DOGE, whether $1,000 is enough to trade right now, last night’s attempt to get into Attaboy, and an upcoming trip to Croatia. Oh, New York!

Yet, the conversation is a reflection of today’s young professional navigating an uncertain economy while still trying to live their best life. It’s a dichotomy that The New York Times’ Emma Goldberg described as the “‘boom-boom aesthetic’ meets the gloom and doom of market turmoil” in a long weekend read.

“It’s a dizzying time to be a 20-something inundated by social media feeds flashing other people’s trips and restaurant reservations…” she writes, adding, “Many young people are plagued by pangs of economic self-doubt, telling friends or therapists that they can’t keep up with the Joneses (and what the Joneses are posting on Instagram). Others are struggling to save, and then making impulse buys…”

Social media might be giving them money dysmorphia, she concludes. It’s not the first time having a distorted view of your own finances has come up — a Credit Karma report last year sparked a slew of takes on the concept. Mine is that it’s been one of the many contributing factors to sinking consumer confidence over the past few years, although the tariff whiplash is certainly tanking that as of late. Goldberg noted that young adults are dealing with economic shifts in different ways — some are being more frugal with groceries, while others are splurging on accessories to soothe their economic fears (that response might have something to do with our money attachment style).

The contrast explains what I’ve been seeing as I put this newsletter together every week, which can jump from a predicted “ugly” summer of inflation to the resurgence of influencer fashion brands — both of which are on today’s agenda.

High school antics. Once upon a time, a white man felt he was treated unfairly! So he decided to make these “foreign” cheaters pay, quite literally, whenever they shipped goods to his country. But this freaked out both his friends and foes, so he did a little takesies-backsies for those who played nice — except for enemy number one, who he’s now making pay even more. His fans say it’s all the genius of a chess player, but if that’s the case then they’re also his pawns as everyone sits in a waiting game for what could be an “ugly” summer.

OMG, am I gonna have enough money to retire? The seesawing stock market might have you losing it over your 401(k). Or maybe you’ve been contemplating buying the dip. Either way, the experts agree: you should really do nothing (or, as my therapist would say, sit with your anxiety!) — it’s better than letting your emotions overtake logic and dictate financial decisions. Personal finance expert Ramit Sethi says you should forget about panic selling and build a “war chest” instead.

The experience economy. We’re going to spend more than ever on international trips this year — $2.1 trillion, per a new report from The World Travel & Tourism Council. While they conducted this research before tariff mayhem, WTTC president and CEO Julia Simpson told Bloomberg they still expect travel to boom despite “some short-term headwinds.” Case in point: the aforementioned café boys and the Americans embodying the European lifestyle of extreme day trips. On the flip side, we might be shopping for secondhand clothes more, and we’re bringing a paper bag lunch to work more than ever. When we do eat out, the recipes at our favorite restaurants could change as chefs try to navigate economic uncertainty.

Buyers and renters. The gap between buying and renting is growing: Homeowners today need to earn over $50,000 more than renters to make monthly payments — that’s 82% more, up from 73% last year. How will tariffs affect that chasm? It’s hard to say right now; the TLDR is maybe lower mortgage rates, but also maybe higher prices for lumber and other materials that will ultimately continue to price Americans out of homeownership.

Saturday night in the city. Move over, London — Indian restaurants are taking over NYC. From Bungalow to Kanyakumari, more and more have been popping up, and diners are scrambling to nab a rez. But sometimes, the allure of a restaurant in today’s Instagram era is less about the food and more about a memorable vibe and aesthetic. Of course, no dinner is complete with a nightcap; these days that might be Jinro soju, a popular brand of South Korea’s iconic white spirit that has been making its way to NYC cocktail bars and beyond. Not quite as hot: the nightlife scene in Brooklyn, where a number of clubs have shuttered over the past several months thanks to skyrocketing rents and party goers who drink less (RIP Freehold).

Wild world of wellness. What’s up with the guys who wear jeans to the gym? I don’t even like walking in jeans, let alone doing squats in them. The trend stems partly from convenience and partly from fitness influencers normalizing the look. In other scratching-your-head wellness trends, “cosmetic rib surgery is emerging from the shadows as a sort of next frontier in body contouring,” writes Jolene Edgar for Allure. Yes, that involves breaking your ribs. Women are pursuing a “Barbie waist,” as some Colombian doctors have marketed it, and plastic surgeons are exploring how to make that happen.

Millennial queens. Paige DeSorbo may have risen to fame as a TV personality on Summer House and podcast host of Giggly Squad whereas Tinx got her start on TikTok, but the two 30-something personas have something in common — their relatable, no-nonsense, unfiltered talk helped them build successful non-traditional portfolio careers. To their respective millions of followers, they symbolize a different pathway to fulfillment outside of the white picket fence life. Both have books on the way this spring: DeSorbo’s “satirical self help book” is her first, written with fellow Giggly Squad podcast host Hannah Berner, while Tinx’s rom com set in where else but the Hamptons is her second.

Newstalgia. In the latest what’s in is old discourse, brands that were popular in the Y2K (think Juicy and UGG, the tracksuit and boot pairing of 2000s mall royalty) are trying to tap into Gen Z’s love for the millennium by offering new takes on early-aughts influences. Business of Fashion’s Sheena Butler-Young dubs it “newstalgia.” Also making a comeback: influencer brands. This time, the new generation of influencers behind them are running the show themselves and focused on slower growth, unlike the generation from the blogging heydays of the 2010s.

Number of the Week

$58,000: The lifetime loss a middle-income household would face under Trump’s tariffs, per projections from The Penn Wharton Business Model. The GDP would fall by about 8% and wages by 7%.

Extra Cents

• If you want to live at Carrie’s new Gramercy address on And Just Like That…, you’ll have to fork up more than $4 million.

• Do you have big millennial hobby energy?

• Men are talking about treating marriage like a four-year NBA contract, but as Ruhama Wolle for Glamour writes, “it’s avoidant attachment dressed up in good branding.”

• Fashion brands are already strategizing — Réalisation Par is offering 20% off for Dreamgirls before it temporarily pauses shipping to the U.S. and increases prices for U.S. orders.

• Did you notice that Chelsea’s outfit on the S3 White Lotus finale looked similar to Portia’s from S2? (SPOILER ALERT)